China-Population/Potential

Shotlist

FILE: China – Date Unknown (CCTV – No access Chinese mainland)
1. Various of parents, children running with kite in hand

FILE: Hangzhou City, Zhejiang Province, east China – Date Unknown (CCTV – No access Chinese mainland)
2. Various of pavilion on West Lake, visitors

Beijing, China – Recent (China Finance 40 Forum – No access Chinese mainland)
3. SOUNDBITE (Chinese) Cai Fang, chairman, China Finance 40 Forum Academic Committee/chief expert, National Think Tank, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (partially overlaid with shot 4/ending with shot 5):
“We don’t need to take sides on whether negative population growth is good or bad. It does not need to be pessimistic, but we can’t ignore its implications, either. This graph shows the level of development, and the horizontal axis is the Human Development Index. As the level of development increases, the fertility rate decreases. It’s like a rule. China generally follow the same rule. When we are talking about the impact of demographic change on economic growth, we look at the variability. If we consider the fact a population has an impact on economic growth through the improvement of labor supply, human capital, return on capital, productivity, we should look at changes in increments, trends, and symbols.”
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4. Graph showing relations of human development index, total fertility rate
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5. Graph showing changes of population growth rate

FILE: Guangzhou City, Guangdong Province, south China – Feb 28, 2023 (CCTV – No access Chinese mainland)
6. Various of graduates at job fair

Beijing, China – Recent (China Finance 40 Forum – No access Chinese mainland)
7. SOUNDBITE (Chinese) Cai Fang, chairman, China Finance 40 Forum Academic Committee/chief expert, National Think Tank, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (partially overlaid with shot 8):
“China has a mega population, mega market, mega innovation and entrepreneurship. So I think China faces challenges in terms of population growth and has potential in terms of population structure. China has 23 percent of the employed population in the agriculture industry, compared to 3 percent in developed countries. This means that China has the potential to reduce its agricultural labor force by a maximum of 20 percentage points. One percentage point of labor force is 7.8 million people. China’s share of the world’s population consumption is almost 12 percent, but our population is still close to 18 percent. There is also a gap of several percentage points. This shows that China’s consumption rate is lower that the world’s average. If China’s share of the world population and consumption are equal to 17 percent or 18 percent, respectively, that would mean that our consumption could increase by 39 percent. This is also the potential of the population structure and the opportunity for the total population.”
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8. Graphs about labor force, consumption
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FILE: Pengzhou City, Sichuan Province, southwest China – Feb 2023 (CGTN – No access Chinese mainland)
9. Various of farmers preparing seedlings in greenhouse

FILE: Beijing, China – Jan 2023 (CCTV – No access Chinese mainland)
10. Various of people in shopping mall

Storyline

Negative population growth does not involve “good” or “bad” judgments, but means some potential in economic growth, said a Chinese think tank expert.

Cai Fang, chairman of the Academic Committee of the China Finance 40 Forum and chief expert of the National Think Tank of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said at an academic salon that it is a natural process for a country’s fertility rate to decrease along with economic and social development.

“We don’t need to take sides on whether negative population growth is good or bad. It does not need to be pessimistic, but we can’t ignore its implications, either,” he said, displaying a graph that shows the relationship between the human development index and the total fertility rate.

“As the level of development increases, the fertility rate decreases. It’s like a rule. China generally follow the same rule. When we are talking about the impact of demographic change on economic growth, we look at the variability. If we consider the fact that a population has an impact on economic growth through the improvement of labor supply, human capital, return on capital and productivity, we should look at changes in increments, trends, and symbols,” he said.

The United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) released the State of World Population Report, saying that India will overtake China as the world’s most populous nation by mid-year, with India’s population at an estimated 1.4286 billion, against 1.4257 billion for China.

Cai said although negative population growth adds to challenges, there is still a potential in China’s demographic structure.

“China has a mega population, mega market, mega innovation and entrepreneurship. So I think China faces challenges in terms of population growth and has potential in terms of population structure. China has 23 percent of the employed population in the agriculture industry, compared to 3 percent in developed countries. This means that China has the potential to reduce its agricultural labor force by a maximum of 20 percentage points. One percentage point of labor force is 7.8 million people. China’s share of the world’s population consumption is almost 12 percent, but our population is still close to 18 percent. There is also a gap of several percentage points. This shows that China’s consumption rate is lower that the world’s average. If China’s share of the world population and consumption are equal to 17 percent or 18 percent, respectively, that would mean that our consumption could increase by 39 percent. This is also the potential of the population structure and the opportunity for the total population,” he said.

Cai further pointed out that a country’s demographic dividend will help spur economic growth only if demographics can be used to advance economic development.

Even if the population structure becomes less favorable, further reform and opening up can still establish the conditions for a demographic dividend, Cai added.

Faced with the challenges of an aging population and negative population growth, Cai suggested that the country should adhere to supply-side structural reform and further raise labor productivity.

Demand-side reform should also be advanced, he said, adding that the government should help further boost people’s incomes, thus enhancing their purchasing power.

Cai said aging population can also become new opportunity to contribute to consumption, housing and other aspects.

The elderly can also become a unique consumer group, he added. Giving the experience of Japan, Europe and the United States, the needs of the elderly, such as goods and services they require, will offer new industrial opportunities, said Cai.

As to housing, China’s urbanization rate of registered population is only 47 percent, which is far from the 80 percent that of a high-income country. This means there exists a huge potential in housing, according to Cai.

In addition, as China’s population shrinks, it must be supplemented by quality. The Chinese government has been extending the period of compulsory education to get more people educated, said Cai.